Bitwise: Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle May Be Changing
Crypto asset manager Bitwise Asset Management believes that Bitcoin could reach its market bottom much earlier than many investors currently expect.
In a recent report from its European research division, André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, suggested that Bitcoin’s well-known four-year cycle could become a “self-defeating prophecy” during the current market cycle.
Traditionally, Bitcoin tends to reach its peak about 12–18 months after a halving event, followed by a prolonged decline that often lasts around a year.
With the most recent peak near $126,000 in October 2025, many investors are currently expecting the next market bottom to arrive around October 2026.
At the moment, BTC is trading roughly 50% below that peak level.
I spoke to the the Head of Research of BitWise in Europe in one of my favourite interviews.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=m40zRMzz6I4
Andre says if U.S. recession doesn't materialise, Bitcoin is massively undervalued right now.
We went deep in this chat:
- Is BitcoinWhen Too Many Investors Wait for the Same Timing
According to Dragosch, the issue lies in the fact that too many investors are expecting the same timeline.
“This expectation has become deeply embedded in market psychology. The eight-month timeframe ahead is turning into an increasingly crowded consensus view,” he explained.
Bitwise argues that when most market participants plan to buy around October 2026, professional investors may choose to move earlier. As a result, market dynamics could accelerate compared to previous cycles.
In other words, when expectations become widely shared, prices often begin to reflect those expectations before the anticipated date arrives, potentially disrupting the traditional cycle pattern.
Bitcoin’s Bottom Could Appear by Mid-2026
Under Bitwise’s scenario, instead of forming a bottom in October 2026, Bitcoin could reach its lowest point several months earlier, potentially around June or July 2026.
This could happen if large investors start accumulating ahead of the expected cycle timing, creating early demand that pushes the market into a recovery phase sooner than the majority anticipates.
Dragosch described this phenomenon as “buying ahead of the four-year cycle rule.”
If this plays out, the current Bitcoin market cycle could move faster than previous cycles, meaning investors may need to pay closer attention to capital flows and market sentiment rather than relying solely on historical cycle models.
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As Bitcoin’s market cycles continue to evolve, timing and access to reliable tools become increasingly important for investors tracking opportunities.
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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and past market cycles do not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with financial professionals before making any investment decisions. Pulse Wallet does not provide financial advice and is not responsible for any investment outcomes based on the information presented in this article.
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