The narrative around a potential altcoin season is gaining traction again as multiple on-chain and technical indicators begin flashing early signals. With a large percentage of altcoins trading near historical lows while long-term momentum starts to improve, the market may be entering a pivotal accumulation phase.
Altcoin Season and the Rise in Tokens Near All-Time Lows (ATL)
The discussion surrounding altcoin season has returned to the spotlight after new data revealed that 38% of altcoins are currently trading near their all-time lows (ATL). According to Darkfost - a well-known market observer - this figure is even worse than the post-FTX collapse period.
Immediately after the collapse of FTX, the percentage of altcoins hitting ATL levels stood at approximately 37.8%, and in April 2025, the figure reached nearly 35%. This indicates that a significant portion of the market is experiencing extreme weakness - even compared to other difficult phases within the current cycle.
Prices of many small-cap altcoins have fallen back to levels seen months ago. Market demand remains subdued, while trading volumes continue to hover at low levels. Crypto market liquidity remains fragile as capital flows have shifted toward equities and commodities - markets currently offering more short-term volatility and trading opportunities.
In this environment, altcoins are struggling to attract fresh inflows. Investors remain cautious, and many have reduced exposure to smaller tokens.
Darkfost describes the current phase as the deepest correction for altcoins in this cycle. Severe drawdowns often reflect fear and a lack of confidence - but they can also signal that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion.
When a large percentage of altcoins trade close to their historical lows, the downside potential may begin to narrow, particularly if new investors gradually re-enter the market. Historically, strong rallies often emerge when sentiment reaches extreme pessimism. During such phases, prices tend to accumulate quietly before new bullish momentum forms.
While the 38% figure does not confirm a definitive market bottom, it highlights that the crypto industry is currently under significant stress. For traders closely monitoring altcoin season signals, this is a metric that cannot be ignored.
Positive Signal Appears on the Monthly ALTS/BTC Chart
Despite continued price pressure, a constructive technical signal has emerged on the monthly ALTS/BTC chart. Specifically, the MACD indicator on the monthly timeframe has remained in positive territory (green) for three consecutive months - something that has not occurred during the current cycle.
The last time a similar signal appeared was in 2021. Shortly afterward, altcoins began significantly outperforming Bitcoin, marking the start of a major expansion phase for many tokens.
MACD is commonly used to measure momentum and trend direction. On a monthly timeframe, it reflects long-term structural shifts rather than short-term fluctuations.
The fact that MACD has maintained positive momentum for multiple consecutive months suggests that downside pressure may be gradually weakening - potentially opening the door for a renewed altcoin season.
Although price action has not yet confirmed a full breakout, the divergence between weak spot prices and improving momentum has captured traders’ attention. Historically, such setups often precede strong upside movements.
Shifts in ALTS/BTC Dominance
Attention is also turning toward the ALTS/BTC dominance ratio - a critical metric for identifying altcoin season dynamics.
Throughout most of the current cycle, Bitcoin has outperformed the broader market. However, recent data shows signs of stabilization in this relative performance chart.
A sustained increase in the ALTS/BTC ratio would signal that capital is rotating back into alternative tokens - a defining characteristic of altcoin season. Without relative outperformance against Bitcoin, isolated altcoin rallies often lack durability.
At present, investors remain cautious and are waiting for clearer confirmation before increasing exposure. However, the combination of:
- A high percentage of tokens near all-time lows
- Monthly MACD turning and staying positive
- Early stabilization in ALTS/BTC dominance
has reignited the debate about a potential upcoming altcoin season.
Strategic Positioning in Volatile Cycles
Periods of extreme weakness often separate emotional trading from strategic accumulation. Managing risk, minimizing transaction costs, and maintaining secure custody become essential components of long-term positioning.
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Conclusion
While there is no confirmed declaration that altcoin season has officially begun, early signs are emerging that selling pressure may be gradually diminishing. Following one of the deepest corrections of the current cycle, the market now stands at a critical inflection point.
Whether this marks the beginning of a powerful recovery phase remains uncertain. However, historical precedent suggests that major opportunities often arise during periods of maximum pessimism.
Time will ultimately determine whether this is the calm before a new altcoin expansion.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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