Analysts predict that Bitcoin could drop below $60,000 per unit if the conflict in Iran continues.
Following news that the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the $63,000 level. The world’s largest cryptocurrency declined around 3% within just a few hours, pushing BTC to its lowest level since the February 5 crash, when the token briefly dipped below $60,000.
Bitcoin later recovered to above $68,000 but remained unstable, at times slipping back toward previous price ranges. BTC’s inability to hold the $65,000 level during the rebound suggests that sellers are still in control. However, due to thinner weekend liquidity, aggressive selling pressure has not been overwhelming, allowing the cryptocurrency to regain some ground and fluctuate around the $66,000–$67,000 range on the morning of March 1.
According to analysts, risks in the crypto market are reflected in valuation metrics and investors’ sell-off behavior — a familiar pattern whenever unexpected volatility emerges. Bitcoin trades 24/7, while stock and bond markets close over the weekend. This makes it one of the few major, highly liquid assets traders can sell when geopolitical risks spike outside traditional trading hours.
As a result, Bitcoin often acts as a “pressure release valve” for risk-off sentiment during weekend events. The cryptocurrency is forced to absorb selling pressure that would otherwise spill over into equities, commodities, and currencies if those markets were open.
Although BTC has rebounded, CoinDesk noted that this stability is partly mechanical due to thin weekend liquidity and the liquidation of many leveraged positions during the earlier drop from the $70,000 level. Analysts predict that when traditional markets reopen next week, if stocks, oil, and bonds decline sharply, Bitcoin could face another wave of risk-off selling from investors.
“Bitcoin could drop to $60,000 or lower,” said Shaurya Malwa, Co-Leader of the Data and Tokens team in Asia at CoinDesk.
If Bitcoin falls to $60,000, it would represent a nearly 53% decline from its peak in early October 2025. The cryptocurrency has already lost nearly 20% of its market value in February alone.
Previous escalations in the Middle East (in 2020 and April 2025) typically followed a pattern in which Bitcoin dropped sharply due to the initial shock but later recovered as traditional markets absorbed the news and the situation stabilized.
This time, however, the “controlled” scenario is harder to predict. Analysts believe downside risks for the cryptocurrency are more apparent. If the conflict widens, oil prices could surge on both sides of the Atlantic, triggering global risk-off sentiment and potentially deeper declines for Bitcoin. Although often viewed as “digital gold,” the token has historically traded more like a risk asset than a safe haven.
“The $60,000 level, which held during the February 5 crash, now becomes the next line of defense — and this time it is being tested under far harsher conditions than a typical leveraged liquidation event,” Shaurya Malwa added.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and involve significant risk. Readers should conduct their own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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